by Ann Noling
The International Crisis Group warned Monday that the long-standing border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritreais in serious risk of once again developing into war. The two countries fought a war over the border between 1998 and 2000, during which an estimated 80,000 people were killed. Although a border was set in 2002, neither country has been satisfied with the ruling, and both countries are currently occupying areas awarded to the other. Although this dispute has been going on for a while, recent troop build-ups on the parts of both countries have led the ICG to issue the warning that war may be imminent. According to the ICG, Ethiopia currently has 100,000 troops stationed along the border, and Eritrea has 4,000 soldiers stationed in the demilitarized region along their side of the border, as well as 120,000 additional soldiers in close-proximity. The ICG is reportedly further concerned by Eritrea’s repeated suggestions that Ethiopia is planning to invade, as well as the November deadline for the countries to set the border before the International Boundary Commission takes over.
The ICG report warned that a new war over the border could lead to “a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilization of Ethiopiaand a dramatic humanitarian crisis.” The ICG is calling for the US and UN to intervene in the conflict by warning Ethiopia and Eritreathat increased military conflict would have serious repercussions. The UN currently has a peacekeeping force of 1,700 deployed in the demilitarized region. The US has primarily supported Ethiopia in the region, and would be even more likely to do so in this conflict because Eritrea has been named a sponsor of terrorism by the US for their support of the Somali Islamists.
I was slightly surprised that in addition to the UN, the ICG specifically called for intervention just from the US. I would think the US is not the only foreign country with a significant impact/presence in the region. I think we often forget, given how much international and domestic criticism is currently aimed at the US for being the world “police,” that this role is not always self-imposed. One thing I did not understand from the article is why this situation was falling apart now. If the border has been disputed for five years, why are the countries increasing their military involvement at the border now? Why is the International Boundary Commission only now getting involved? I would imagine that some element of the dispute must have shifted or changed recently, but the article did not give an indication of what this might be.
