The Bush administration has systematically slandered Iran over the last few years, turning the once ally into a member of the “Axis of Evil.” This week the Economist published an article discussing the sudden shift within the Intelligence community concerning Iran’s nuclear programs.
IT REPRESENTS a remarkable change of opinion. Just two years ago the consensus view of America’s 16 intelligence agencies was tough and unambiguous: Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure.”
Yet recently a new Intelligence report released on December 3rd has indicated that Iran has NOT tried to obtain nuclear weapons for many years. In fact that Iranian nuclear program has been halted since fall of 2003. Yet the more interesting thing, is why has there been such a sudden shift. The government is not citing it’s new evidence; however, analyst have been speculating since this news was released.
One analyst notes that the defection to the West of an Iranian general in 2007 may have produced better intelligence from inside Iran. The spies may also have concluded that earlier assessments were overly alarming, perhaps as a result of pressure from Mr Cheney, who may have sought an intelligence document to bolster any case for bombing Iran. Mr Bush’s administration has been accused of stretching official intelligence on Iraq’s arms capability in making the case for invasion of that country in 2003.
It has also been speculated this this sudden shift comes on the heals of China’s participation in United Nations Sanctions. It is becoming more and more clear that Iran seems to, at least according to the National Intelligence Estimate, that the sentiment in Iran is becoming more and more opposed to violence.
America has said that the number of explosively formed projectiles used against its troops in Iraq has declined markedly in recent months. America has stated that such sophisticated weapons are probably provided by Iran (a charge that Iran denies). Such a drop might indicate that Iran, despite its president’s bluster, is keen to avoid military confrontation.
None of this information suggests that Iran is no longer a threat. They still control 3000 ultra centrifuges that could be used to enrich uranium. Iran will continue to be a threat, but at least for now, they seem to be taking a less aggressive stance.
The issue that most perturbs me is the fact that President Bush seemed to ignore the new intelligence report, claiming that Iran was as much a threat as ever. I agree that Iran is still a threat, but to ignore reports that indicate a growing movement of lesser aggression. I think Bush refuses to acknowledge this because he sees that it shows that he was once again wrong, and may have altered intelligence reports to further his ambitions.
